kondur_007
06-08 07:01 PM
There is going to be no spillover to EB2 India at all because according to the thread "Employment-Based Visa Number Movement and Predictions - from current Murthy Bulletin" thread Mr. Oppenheim (the guy from the DOS who sets the visa bulletin) said that EB1, EB4 and Eb5 might also retrogress (that is have to a cut off date which means they will not be current). If EB1, EB2 and EB5 retrogress and there is no spillover from EB2 ROW and there is no spillover from Family based visas there will not be any spillover to Eb2 India at all. There is absoluetely no difference between Eb3 India and Eb2 India except that EB3 India will be stuck in 2001 and Eb2 India might be stuck either in 2002 or early 2003. We are screwed for ages to come. Dont give me red for bringing this harsh reality, I myself am depressed
Nobody should get red for expressing their thought!! So if at all I give you some, it would be only green!
coming to your point: Even in the thread you referenced to, I have posted a comment "Mr. Oppenheim's statements do not add up...his statements logically contradict each other (well you can not expect LOGIC from USCIS). and so the exact scenario will only be clarified with VB, date movements and finally, their year end statistics".
Accordingly, moving the EB2 I and C together, they have proven that "they are getting ready to spill over". Moreover, EB2 China has used up "its own quota" and will need spill over to move. EB2 ROW on the other had has not used up "its own quota" and will not need spill over (as it is current and not together with India and china). So any spill over from EB1 will come to EB2 India and China (effectively only to India). And if EB2 ROW does not use up their remaining numbers (which they have not so far) during the rest of fiscal year they will also spill to EB2 India.
Now as far as future of EB2 vs EB3 is concerned, I personally believe (and this is just my personal belief....) that unless EB1 (specially EB1C) gets oversubscribed (as mentioned in other threads), EB2 should move quickly during next fiscal year. EB1 usage can only be known from year end data as and when they publish it.
Nobody should get red for expressing their thought!! So if at all I give you some, it would be only green!
coming to your point: Even in the thread you referenced to, I have posted a comment "Mr. Oppenheim's statements do not add up...his statements logically contradict each other (well you can not expect LOGIC from USCIS). and so the exact scenario will only be clarified with VB, date movements and finally, their year end statistics".
Accordingly, moving the EB2 I and C together, they have proven that "they are getting ready to spill over". Moreover, EB2 China has used up "its own quota" and will need spill over to move. EB2 ROW on the other had has not used up "its own quota" and will not need spill over (as it is current and not together with India and china). So any spill over from EB1 will come to EB2 India and China (effectively only to India). And if EB2 ROW does not use up their remaining numbers (which they have not so far) during the rest of fiscal year they will also spill to EB2 India.
Now as far as future of EB2 vs EB3 is concerned, I personally believe (and this is just my personal belief....) that unless EB1 (specially EB1C) gets oversubscribed (as mentioned in other threads), EB2 should move quickly during next fiscal year. EB1 usage can only be known from year end data as and when they publish it.
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desibechara
10-12 03:39 PM
I am..
EB3 India..PD Oct 2001, LC certfied on June 19,, got in hand on July26
Applied I140, I485 and I170, I130 on Aug7
NSC..receipts Sep19
FP notice for Oct 30,have not recived for wifes' FP notice
EAD online notice for both of us ..on Oct 9
I understand lot of people are anxious about GC..but look at dates!!!
Its been 6 years..
DB
EB3 India..PD Oct 2001, LC certfied on June 19,, got in hand on July26
Applied I140, I485 and I170, I130 on Aug7
NSC..receipts Sep19
FP notice for Oct 30,have not recived for wifes' FP notice
EAD online notice for both of us ..on Oct 9
I understand lot of people are anxious about GC..but look at dates!!!
Its been 6 years..
DB
mirage
03-17 12:26 PM
As far as I know there are atleast 5-6K applicants waiting with PDs before Dec-2003. Considering 3 visas used for each applicant. There'll be a requirement of atleast 15-20K Green Card numbers for Indian EB3 to clear people up to Dec'2003. While EB3 gets a maximum of 3K/Year. My guess is it'll take 5-6 Years to get the EB3 to Dec'2003.
If we assume this poll is a mirror of actual application load at USCIS then 70% applications were filed before January 2005 (529/750). Out of 529, 223 were filed during June 2003 or before (42% load). Now during last May-June 2007 EB3-I's current PD reached to June 2003. So assuming current stuck ones were product of either PBEC/DBEC labor approval delay and /or Name check delay, they will be virtually ready to go, I mean get a GC rightaway. People with PD having DEC 2003 and before will have fair chance as well.
If we assume this poll is a mirror of actual application load at USCIS then 70% applications were filed before January 2005 (529/750). Out of 529, 223 were filed during June 2003 or before (42% load). Now during last May-June 2007 EB3-I's current PD reached to June 2003. So assuming current stuck ones were product of either PBEC/DBEC labor approval delay and /or Name check delay, they will be virtually ready to go, I mean get a GC rightaway. People with PD having DEC 2003 and before will have fair chance as well.
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h1techSlave
03-22 10:42 AM
I have noticed that the % prior to Jan 2004 is a whopping 44.06. I have a bad feeling that this group (prior to Jan 2004) is growing. :eek:
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feedfront
09-14 04:04 PM
Please share your EVL, if possible.
GCard_Dream
12-13 11:46 AM
I should have known this. The procedure is right on the IV home page. Does anyone know when the next conference call is?
How to submit your questions:
Please read the disclaimer below before submitting your questions via email.Please provide us with the following information, preferably in the following format, and keep it consise and crisp:
Email with Subject Line saying : Seeking Legal Opinion.
Email Address: legal_advise@immigrationvoice.org
Your Info: Please mention your first Name, City and State, so that we can use it to announce your question in the call. That way, your question would be distinguished from similar sounding questions.
Your Country of Citizenship: If your spouse is from a country other than yours, please specify both your countries of citizenship
Your Questions: Provide some clear background. Avoid questions with long and complicated case-specific situations that are like "Can I do X? If yes then is option A or option B better? If option A then can I file this? IF option B then can I file this? If B fails then can I refile A?". Such flow-chart and if-then-else type questions would be taken up only if time is left and attorney is comfortable in answering questions with limited information of your situation.
How to submit your questions:
Please read the disclaimer below before submitting your questions via email.Please provide us with the following information, preferably in the following format, and keep it consise and crisp:
Email with Subject Line saying : Seeking Legal Opinion.
Email Address: legal_advise@immigrationvoice.org
Your Info: Please mention your first Name, City and State, so that we can use it to announce your question in the call. That way, your question would be distinguished from similar sounding questions.
Your Country of Citizenship: If your spouse is from a country other than yours, please specify both your countries of citizenship
Your Questions: Provide some clear background. Avoid questions with long and complicated case-specific situations that are like "Can I do X? If yes then is option A or option B better? If option A then can I file this? IF option B then can I file this? If B fails then can I refile A?". Such flow-chart and if-then-else type questions would be taken up only if time is left and attorney is comfortable in answering questions with limited information of your situation.
more...
desibechara
10-12 03:39 PM
I am..
EB3 India..PD Oct 2001, LC certfied on June 19,, got in hand on July26
Applied I140, I485 and I170, I130 on Aug7
NSC..receipts Sep19
FP notice for Oct 30,have not recived for wifes' FP notice
EAD online notice for both of us ..on Oct 9
I understand lot of people are anxious about GC..but look at dates!!!
Its been 6 years..
DB
EB3 India..PD Oct 2001, LC certfied on June 19,, got in hand on July26
Applied I140, I485 and I170, I130 on Aug7
NSC..receipts Sep19
FP notice for Oct 30,have not recived for wifes' FP notice
EAD online notice for both of us ..on Oct 9
I understand lot of people are anxious about GC..but look at dates!!!
Its been 6 years..
DB
2010 my new 1993 Honda Civic Si
dilber
06-26 05:28 PM
May be you scared the USCIS with your phone calls and they just wanted you out of their systems. So that you don't rally other people and then they might have to really become efficient.:cool:
BTW really happy for you... enjoy:o
I got a red for this with comment "bhaag saale, really happy for you? kaam c=dhanda nahi hai kya?"
Translation: Get lost you idiot, happy for you? don't you have any other work?
Not that I care about it too much but shouldn't highly skilled people be more responsible, and courteous. :cool:
BTW really happy for you... enjoy:o
I got a red for this with comment "bhaag saale, really happy for you? kaam c=dhanda nahi hai kya?"
Translation: Get lost you idiot, happy for you? don't you have any other work?
Not that I care about it too much but shouldn't highly skilled people be more responsible, and courteous. :cool:
more...
PHANI_TAVVALA
05-12 03:33 PM
While I wait for GC and chewed up all finger nails, I thought its good time to think about adding a qualification to myself.
I do not want to spend rest of my life in development. :cool:
I was doing some research on Online MBA (no..not the diploma mills or degree printing ones)
My criteria was,
1) Institutions that require GMAT
2) AACSB Accredited
3) Has some sensible ranking in USNews or Financial Times or Business Week
4) Can be done without leaving current job (occasional visit to universities are fine with me)
Here are the universities I came up
1) Warrington College of Business, Florida (USNEWS ranking)
2) WP Carey, Arizona State University (USNEWS ranking)
3) Kelley Direct, Indiana University (highly regarded)
4) Penn State World Campus MBA
And then there are many $$ category colleges which I didnt bother to check..I can't pay those fees :)
Now, can any one suggest or comment or refer to any other college?
Also, what kind of disciplines we should check in an MBA..I dont know if MBA finance will be good..as such I have no preferences. (anything related to Investment banking etc will be good though)
I am doing Kelley Direct and would definitely recommend it. The Professors are great and course work feels like your regular full-time load with assignments, quizzes, mid-terms and finals, project works, case discussions and some weekly classes. Most of the professors are very interactive and you can always call them. The teaching faculty is top-quality with some of them having Ph.d's from MIT's and Stanford's. Marketing is considered top-notch at Kelley. Curriculum allows some flexibility and course load can be completed in 2 to 4 year period requiring 1week compulsory on-campus presence in 1st and 2nd year. If you have time, you can also participate in 3 to 4 week clinics for 1.5 credit hours in summers. It is now costing me around $975/credit hour with 48 credits required to graduate. Add to this cost of books at other administration/technology fee which might add upto $5k to $8k.
I have couple of friends who graduated from Thunderbird too. It is top-notch for International Business but doesnot allow the flexibility to complete at your own pace. My friends were totally tied up with work and course-load for 2 years. It requires somewhere between 51 to 54 credit hours to graduate. It has two compulsory International workshop clinics each in 1st and 2nd year for a period of 3 to 4 weeks. This is partly paid from the fee, while you need to pay for flight tickets and meals. I think the books are included in the $57k+ tuition for this program.
Kelley full-time is ranked between 18 and 23 depending on which source you would like to use. Its Marketing Discipline is in top10. Thunderbird is not ranked in TOP50 but it's INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS discipline is ranked number one.
I do not want to spend rest of my life in development. :cool:
I was doing some research on Online MBA (no..not the diploma mills or degree printing ones)
My criteria was,
1) Institutions that require GMAT
2) AACSB Accredited
3) Has some sensible ranking in USNews or Financial Times or Business Week
4) Can be done without leaving current job (occasional visit to universities are fine with me)
Here are the universities I came up
1) Warrington College of Business, Florida (USNEWS ranking)
2) WP Carey, Arizona State University (USNEWS ranking)
3) Kelley Direct, Indiana University (highly regarded)
4) Penn State World Campus MBA
And then there are many $$ category colleges which I didnt bother to check..I can't pay those fees :)
Now, can any one suggest or comment or refer to any other college?
Also, what kind of disciplines we should check in an MBA..I dont know if MBA finance will be good..as such I have no preferences. (anything related to Investment banking etc will be good though)
I am doing Kelley Direct and would definitely recommend it. The Professors are great and course work feels like your regular full-time load with assignments, quizzes, mid-terms and finals, project works, case discussions and some weekly classes. Most of the professors are very interactive and you can always call them. The teaching faculty is top-quality with some of them having Ph.d's from MIT's and Stanford's. Marketing is considered top-notch at Kelley. Curriculum allows some flexibility and course load can be completed in 2 to 4 year period requiring 1week compulsory on-campus presence in 1st and 2nd year. If you have time, you can also participate in 3 to 4 week clinics for 1.5 credit hours in summers. It is now costing me around $975/credit hour with 48 credits required to graduate. Add to this cost of books at other administration/technology fee which might add upto $5k to $8k.
I have couple of friends who graduated from Thunderbird too. It is top-notch for International Business but doesnot allow the flexibility to complete at your own pace. My friends were totally tied up with work and course-load for 2 years. It requires somewhere between 51 to 54 credit hours to graduate. It has two compulsory International workshop clinics each in 1st and 2nd year for a period of 3 to 4 weeks. This is partly paid from the fee, while you need to pay for flight tickets and meals. I think the books are included in the $57k+ tuition for this program.
Kelley full-time is ranked between 18 and 23 depending on which source you would like to use. Its Marketing Discipline is in top10. Thunderbird is not ranked in TOP50 but it's INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS discipline is ranked number one.
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chmur
09-11 09:44 AM
The actual backlog at beginning of 2010 is 200K (pending I-485) + all EB2 I/C and EB3 waiting to file I-485 from 2007-2010. The no of folks in EB2I/C and EB3 ROW from 2007-2010 will be about 80-100K. So instead of 2-3 years , overflow will start reaching EB3 in ~ 5 years.
Yes @the beginning of 2010 - 200 K . Now ~@160 K. The flood gates will not open at least for another year. Just like 2009-210, 2010-11 will see significant reduction in backlog , so next year at this time we may be @120 range. That's when it is very close to EB3-I.
Now problem with your analysis is you assume that USCIS will open the flood gates and make EB2-I current letting in all the applications from 2007 -2010 in one shot. That is questionable, especially since they got burnt in 2007 . They will gradually open the gates . And 70-80 K EB2 and EB3-ROW applications between 2007 -2010 sounds little high.
So I do think we will start burning the Eb3-I backlog with 2-3 years, by 5 years all categories will be current.
And one thing that has not got enough press here is , how the EB3-ROW has got significant overflow in the last two months though EB2- I/C are no where near current. Per common understanding , they should not get a single overflow till EB2 is current .
Street Justice ??
Yes @the beginning of 2010 - 200 K . Now ~@160 K. The flood gates will not open at least for another year. Just like 2009-210, 2010-11 will see significant reduction in backlog , so next year at this time we may be @120 range. That's when it is very close to EB3-I.
Now problem with your analysis is you assume that USCIS will open the flood gates and make EB2-I current letting in all the applications from 2007 -2010 in one shot. That is questionable, especially since they got burnt in 2007 . They will gradually open the gates . And 70-80 K EB2 and EB3-ROW applications between 2007 -2010 sounds little high.
So I do think we will start burning the Eb3-I backlog with 2-3 years, by 5 years all categories will be current.
And one thing that has not got enough press here is , how the EB3-ROW has got significant overflow in the last two months though EB2- I/C are no where near current. Per common understanding , they should not get a single overflow till EB2 is current .
Street Justice ??
more...
amrutasanjiv8
12-21 10:30 PM
Hi ,
I have H1B from my current company A. My fiance is having no visa so he is in India. He is in IT hardware field.....
Also I am currently searching for jobs in IT hardware field in USA but as he is not in USA so no luck till now.....
1) I am thinking of bringing him in USA after marriage on H4...the reason is it seems to be very difficult to find job in USA from India with H1 sponsorship ...As I have H1 , my fiance can have H4....On H4 he can not work in USA or apply for jobs in USA....plz confirm...
2) So I am thinking of changing H1 to L1 by changing my current job .....Can I ask my new employer to sponsor L1.....or shud I ask my present employer to sponsor L1....what will be good for us?
3) how much time H4 processing takes?
3) If I get L1 from new/existing employer then will H4 of my dependent will get changed to L2?
4) How much time does it take to process L1 and L2...
5) Can a person on L1 change job in USA?
kindly let me know your views as it is very much urgent .......
Thanks,
Amruta
I have H1B from my current company A. My fiance is having no visa so he is in India. He is in IT hardware field.....
Also I am currently searching for jobs in IT hardware field in USA but as he is not in USA so no luck till now.....
1) I am thinking of bringing him in USA after marriage on H4...the reason is it seems to be very difficult to find job in USA from India with H1 sponsorship ...As I have H1 , my fiance can have H4....On H4 he can not work in USA or apply for jobs in USA....plz confirm...
2) So I am thinking of changing H1 to L1 by changing my current job .....Can I ask my new employer to sponsor L1.....or shud I ask my present employer to sponsor L1....what will be good for us?
3) how much time H4 processing takes?
3) If I get L1 from new/existing employer then will H4 of my dependent will get changed to L2?
4) How much time does it take to process L1 and L2...
5) Can a person on L1 change job in USA?
kindly let me know your views as it is very much urgent .......
Thanks,
Amruta
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gc_on_demand
11-14 10:52 AM
Totally agree, very nicely put. They will hear - listen if we present ideas that are pertinent to the existing situation. Nothing more pertinent than the housing mess. No one cares about old jaded ideas like "high talent" etc.
Can people in California approach Zoe Lofergens office with the idea?
On my part I will start sending letters and emails to the law makers.
Some one in the core has to take the lead and give some direction to this effort......
Do not regret if six months from now the housing crisis has cooled a little, no one will listen to us then. We would have wasted another chance. Do not take it for granted that now Obama is in office, he will do smoething about our problems.
If you are from california plz make a call. Or if you know some one have him/her call to her office.
We need to keep moving ahead on this one.
Can people in California approach Zoe Lofergens office with the idea?
On my part I will start sending letters and emails to the law makers.
Some one in the core has to take the lead and give some direction to this effort......
Do not regret if six months from now the housing crisis has cooled a little, no one will listen to us then. We would have wasted another chance. Do not take it for granted that now Obama is in office, he will do smoething about our problems.
If you are from california plz make a call. Or if you know some one have him/her call to her office.
We need to keep moving ahead on this one.
more...
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grinch
03-11 10:33 PM
Yes we are soulty!!
Thanks bluesun, I'll try it out
Thanks bluesun, I'll try it out
tattoo 1993_Honda_Civic (2)
kshitijnt
05-10 11:27 PM
I urge everyone to read the donor forum...we need more people to work on couple of issues and fixes. Please become a donor and take part in this...if you are serious to fix these issues.
What is a donor. I previously donated $500 and I am not on that forum. Also asked IV through PM about it. Never got a response.
What is a donor. I previously donated $500 and I am not on that forum. Also asked IV through PM about it. Never got a response.
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pictures 1993 Honda Civic Si hatch
carbon
07-24 12:39 PM
If USCIS could interpret the law to their advantage we can use our resources
to fight their interpretation and force them to change their policy.
I also think we can even file a law suite in relation to "incorrect" interpretation
by USCIS.
to fight their interpretation and force them to change their policy.
I also think we can even file a law suite in relation to "incorrect" interpretation
by USCIS.
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vamsi_poondla
09-26 02:40 PM
Check it out
Dear Reader,
Thank you for your interest in FSB. We admit that there was a
mischaracterization of the Capitol Hill rally in the story and it was
corrected as soon we realized the error.
We have changed the story to correctly identify the mission as a protest of
the long delays in securing green cards for highly-skilled workers already
in the U.S.
We will work to avoid errors like this in the future.
Best regards,
FSB
Dear Reader,
Thank you for your interest in FSB. We admit that there was a
mischaracterization of the Capitol Hill rally in the story and it was
corrected as soon we realized the error.
We have changed the story to correctly identify the mission as a protest of
the long delays in securing green cards for highly-skilled workers already
in the U.S.
We will work to avoid errors like this in the future.
Best regards,
FSB
more...
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prioritydate
12-20 04:08 PM
:D;)
I dont think you need to worry.. for you knwo what I am saying ...:D
May be I need to give a reason. I didn't worked for the whole year because there were no jobs. I just stayed at home depressed.
Not working and there by not getting salary signifies out of status? I am not sure about that. I didn't traveled outside of the country couple of times after that.
I dont think you need to worry.. for you knwo what I am saying ...:D
May be I need to give a reason. I didn't worked for the whole year because there were no jobs. I just stayed at home depressed.
Not working and there by not getting salary signifies out of status? I am not sure about that. I didn't traveled outside of the country couple of times after that.
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pkv
03-17 07:20 PM
another thing...
Can I send both of our (me and my wife) applications in the same package?
I couldn't find this info anywhere, even in instructions pdf on uscis website.
Thanks,
P.
Can I send both of our (me and my wife) applications in the same package?
I couldn't find this info anywhere, even in instructions pdf on uscis website.
Thanks,
P.
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natrajs
04-24 10:01 AM
Congrats Googler!
I just checked my status and saw my I-485 CASE APPROVED status.My Good luck and Best wishes to all the people on this forum on their GC.
EB2, NSC PD 10/02
I-485 RD - 02/2007
Approval Notice - April 23'08
Congrats and Best Wishes
I just checked my status and saw my I-485 CASE APPROVED status.My Good luck and Best wishes to all the people on this forum on their GC.
EB2, NSC PD 10/02
I-485 RD - 02/2007
Approval Notice - April 23'08
Congrats and Best Wishes
pd052009
03-17 08:14 AM
^^^^^
alisa
01-27 09:25 AM
I am glad you posted this.
I will put the numbers in the excel spreadsheet and see what comes out.
But these might give more sensible results than the preposterous wait times that we were getting.
If the average depletion rate for India is 34K per annum, then the wait times would look a lot better I think.
I am assuming that these numbers include the dependents. So, if 34K adjustment of status were awareded, then, roughly speaking, there were 17K primary applicants, and 17K dependents? Am I correct?
Also, for the accumulation rate, when we say that 65K H-1 visas are given out annually, I am assuming that does not include the dependents. Am I right??
FISCAL ------ Employment ------- EB3
YEAR ----- Total ---- INDIA | Total --- India
2000 ----- 111,024 | 15888 | 51,711 | -5567 :IV FY 2000 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2000%20table%20V.pdf)
2001 ----- 186,536 | 41720 | 90,274 | 16405 :IV FY 2001 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2001%20table%20V.pdf)
2002 ----- 171,583 | 41919 | 87,574 | 17428 :IV FY 2002 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2002%20table%20V.pdf)
2003 ----- -83,020 | 20818 | 47,354 | 10680 :IV FY 2003 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2003%20table%20V.pdf)
2004 ----- 157,107 | 39496 | 88,114 | 19962 :IV FY 2004 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY04tableV.pdf)
2005 ----- 242,335 | 47160 |122,130 | 23399 :IV FY 2005 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf)
6 yr total - 951,605| 207001| 487,157| 93441
Annual Avg --------- 34500 | -------- 15574
If this trend would have continued. There should not be any MAJOR retrogression problem, but if you remember from the Nov 05 VB. The warning was very clear:
During FY due to anticipated heavy demand, the AC21 provisions are not expected to apply, and the amount of Employment numbers available to any single country will be subject to the 7% cap. It is anticipated that the addition of unused FY-2005 Family numbers and the remaining AC21 numbers to the 140,000 annual minimum will result in an FY-2006 annual Employment limit of 152,000. This will mean an Employment per-country limit for FY-2006 of approximately 10,650.
To illustrate the effect of the reduced per-county limitation during FY-2006 on the oversubscribed countries, it should be noted that during FY-2005 India used approximately 47,175 Employment numbers.
If you plug this number into your analysis the result might be a couple of years of advance for your predictions.
andy
I will put the numbers in the excel spreadsheet and see what comes out.
But these might give more sensible results than the preposterous wait times that we were getting.
If the average depletion rate for India is 34K per annum, then the wait times would look a lot better I think.
I am assuming that these numbers include the dependents. So, if 34K adjustment of status were awareded, then, roughly speaking, there were 17K primary applicants, and 17K dependents? Am I correct?
Also, for the accumulation rate, when we say that 65K H-1 visas are given out annually, I am assuming that does not include the dependents. Am I right??
FISCAL ------ Employment ------- EB3
YEAR ----- Total ---- INDIA | Total --- India
2000 ----- 111,024 | 15888 | 51,711 | -5567 :IV FY 2000 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2000%20table%20V.pdf)
2001 ----- 186,536 | 41720 | 90,274 | 16405 :IV FY 2001 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2001%20table%20V.pdf)
2002 ----- 171,583 | 41919 | 87,574 | 17428 :IV FY 2002 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2002%20table%20V.pdf)
2003 ----- -83,020 | 20818 | 47,354 | 10680 :IV FY 2003 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2003%20table%20V.pdf)
2004 ----- 157,107 | 39496 | 88,114 | 19962 :IV FY 2004 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY04tableV.pdf)
2005 ----- 242,335 | 47160 |122,130 | 23399 :IV FY 2005 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf)
6 yr total - 951,605| 207001| 487,157| 93441
Annual Avg --------- 34500 | -------- 15574
If this trend would have continued. There should not be any MAJOR retrogression problem, but if you remember from the Nov 05 VB. The warning was very clear:
During FY due to anticipated heavy demand, the AC21 provisions are not expected to apply, and the amount of Employment numbers available to any single country will be subject to the 7% cap. It is anticipated that the addition of unused FY-2005 Family numbers and the remaining AC21 numbers to the 140,000 annual minimum will result in an FY-2006 annual Employment limit of 152,000. This will mean an Employment per-country limit for FY-2006 of approximately 10,650.
To illustrate the effect of the reduced per-county limitation during FY-2006 on the oversubscribed countries, it should be noted that during FY-2005 India used approximately 47,175 Employment numbers.
If you plug this number into your analysis the result might be a couple of years of advance for your predictions.
andy
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